Japan on the long term 18th Feb

Hello all, I haven’t done a forecast for Japan for a while, so this is the time to make another one. Soon, spring will come and the snowpack will start to decline. This forecast will take us into Spring.

4-5 March This event on GFS shows a small low, that creates some precipitation and then some northwesterly winds, that could bring snow. Similar forecast on EPS Control and GEPS (GEM Ensemble).

7-9 March EC Monthly Control shows a cold core low that strengthens in the Sea of Japan that hits Hokkaido and northern Honshu. This brings associated precipitation to northern and central Honshu as well as Hokkaido with a northwesternly wind developing on the 8th, bringing colder conditions. CFS prefers a low North of Hokkaido, bringing some moisture and cold temperatures there.

11-12 March On EC Monthly, a cold core low comes from the northeast and moves along the East Coast of Japan. It brings heavy precipitation to eastern Hokkaido due to the easterly wind, but a not very cold northwesternly wind develops for Central Honshu, resulting in some precipitation, but not particularly cold. CFS favours a low centered just north of Hokkaido, bringing colder northwesternly winds to central Honshu and favours western Hokkaido. This continues on CFS until the 15th of March.

16-19 March Two lows from the south come and affect the snow regions of Japan. On EC Monthly, one low is on the East Coast and one is in the Sea of Japan. They are basically ‘Pineapples’ and may possibly bring massive amounts of moisture, but with higher temperatures. At the later stage of this event, some proper snow may come in the form of a cooler northwesternly wind, especially in Hokkaido. CFS likes just the East Coast of Japan low, bringing cold northwesternly winds from the 17th of March and the low will also bring a large amount of precipitation, similar to EC.

Thanks for sticking with me. The forecast looks reasonably favourable for this time of year, but the temperatures will get warmer, as we enter Spring. The usual disclaimers apply. I let my audience decide the accuracy of this forecast and I personally don’t proclaim a huge amount of accuracy in this forecast. But it is interesting to watch.

Stay cool

Snowy Hibbo

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