16th September Australian Snow Long Term Outlook

What an incredible month! We have had so much snow over the last couple of weeks. We haven’t seen this amount of snow since 2004. Amazing!!! Sorry for the lack of posting, but I have just been too busy skiing! This will be our last long range prediction for this season. You may notice, the EC charts are now much nicer with the 540 line and etc included. So let’s get into it.

29-30 September

GFS shows a chance of a node coming up during this period. It doesn’t model much snowfall, perhaps localised light snowfall to the south. EC Monthly shows a massive node, with very cold temperatures and heavy snowfall potential, but the more recent EPS Control run shows nothing during this period.

4-6 October

EC Monthly shows a moist low coming during this period. However it is quite a warm system, and most of it is likely to fall as rain. CFS also features precipitation on the 6th and 7th, but that will fall as rain unfortunately.

8-9 October

EC Monthly shows a weak fairly cold node coming over SE Australia. It features quite a large amount of prefrontal rain, however the backend will fall as light-moderate snowfall over the 9th. CFS shows little precipitation during this period.

13-16 October

EC Monthly shows a weak system coming over the Alps over the 16th. Most of it will be rain, however it will probably snow above 1700m or so. Before that, another system comes over on the 13th and 14th. This is mainly a clipper, but heavy precipitation to the north may help the cold temperatures give heavy snowfall to the north. A major system comes over on CFS with heavy precipitation, but temperatures are very warm.

So summary of EC Monthly is mostly rain, but potential for snow in backends of incoming nodes. Summary of CFS is heaps of rain, practically no snow. At this extended range, the models tend to be biased towards rain, because snow is statistically less likely to occur in October, compared to rain.

Climate Drivers

The polar vortex is weakening as you can see above. While it is weakening, some cold air is often be sent up to the mid latitudes and it may encourage snowfall. But once it is fully weakened, we go into summer mode.

MJO is quite strong and is heading straight for us. This will aid the next two week’s worth of systems and will encourage good snowfalls. After that, the MJO looks weak.

SAM looks positive for the medium-long term, which is bad for more snowfall.

Thank you so much for reading. I hope it was interesting to you.

Disclaimer: There is low skill asssociated with using long range model forecasts to find snow systems. All systems you see here will change, as the date gets closer and may not eventuate all together. I don’t give much accuracy to these forecasts, but you can give these a bit of your time and your dreams might come true 😉 I find the chase of these long range snow systems awesome, so come and join me! The climate driver forecasts tend to have a bit more skill than the precipitation and temperature forecasts, but certainly don’t put all your money on them. However, climate drivers are an awesome tool to explain the weather around us.

This will conclude our Australian Long Range outlook journey. My seasonal prediction for 2017 went wrong, thanks to the unprecedented August and September snowfalls. Next year….. For those heading north, the Northern Hemisphere season outlooks should start coming out in the next few weeks and the long term outlooks starting in December. Looking forward to a great season. Thanks again, follow me on Twitter @longrangesnow and join my email list on the top bar of this website. See you on the slopes!

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