Europe on the long term 3rd Feb

Welcome back to another long term snow outlook for Europe. The snowfall season is now starting to wind down, which means I am starting to move towards my final forecasts. But there is still plenty of chances for snowfall, and I am going to walk through all the modelling and factors that may contribute to the Late February/Early March forecast.

21-23 Feb

EC Monthly shows the jetstream hitting the Northern Alps, bringing them moderate-heavy snowfall, at it’s strongest during the 22nd. The system weakens over the 23rd. CFS shows a weak trough over the Alps, bringing light snow showers to parts of the Alps during this period.

24-28 Feb

EC Monthly shows a low approaching from the SW towards the Alps on the 24th evening. It brings moderate-heavy snowfall for the Southern Alps, from France to Austria over the 25th, 26th and 27th, before slowing down to light snow showers on the 28th Feb. CFS shows a low to the South on the 25th and 26th morning, that brings moderate snowfall to the Southern Alps. It also shows another low to the South, that brings moderate-heavy snowfall on the 27th and 28th.

3-4 Mar

EC Monthly shows a low from the NW, bringing moderate snowfall to the Northern Alps from the morning of the 3rd, continuing overnight, and weakening over the 4th. CFS shows a deep low to the NW, bringing moderate-heavy snowfall for the Northern Alps over the 3rd and 4th, extending to the 7th with more snowfall.

Climate Drivers

The MJO is currently in Phase 6. With a 10 day lag, this Phase correlates with a -NAO, which typically brings more snowfall for the Southern Alps. So in the next 5-15 days, we should expect more snowfall for the Southern Alps, thanks to the MJO. However the GFS forecast disagrees with this, showing a +NAO.

The GWO is currently in Phase 5. This phase is expected to continue for at least the next week, and expect it to have a few days lag too. This is correlated with a +NAO and ridging over the Alps, thanks to a strengthening Atlantic jetstream.

The Stratosphere is currently weakening, and is expected to go into a major warming event in the next 10 days or so on both GFS and EC. This could bring a -AO/-NAO outlook in late February and into March.

EC Monthly shows a neutral AO/NAO for the medium-long term, until March, when the AO/NAO goes more positive (Northern Alps get more snowfall). CFS shows a positive NAO, for Mid February, before dropping to a negative NAO for Late Feb and all of March.

So in summary, my thoughts about the Alps, is a +NAO in the medium term until Mid-Late Feb, due to GWO and the models. But then a potentially better period for the Southern Alps(-NAO), from Late Feb into March, based upon CFS and a tasty Stratosphere, as well as several other underlying factors.

Thanks so much for reading. I hoped you enjoyed reading it.

Disclaimer: There is low skill asssociated with using long range model forecasts to find snow systems. All systems you see here will change, as the date gets closer and may not eventuate all together. I don’t give much accuracy to these forecasts, but you can give these a bit of your time and your dreams might come true 😉 I find the chase of these long range snow systems awesome, so come and join me! The climate driver forecasts tend to have a bit more skill than the model forecasts, but certainly don’t put all your money on them. However, climate drivers are an awesome tool to explain the weather around us.

Thanks again for reading this European long range snow forecast, follow me on Twitter @longrangesnow and subscribe to my email list by clicking on the tab on the main header above.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s