Europe on the long term 3rd Feb

14th-19th Feb

A ridge focused in Southern Europe, per EC 46 model, pushes the jet stream to the north, with an intense +NAO low driving a zonal outlook.

19th-23rd Feb

A strong +NAO and Greenland low shows a zonal pattern for the UK. European ridging dominates the Alps with a dry outlook for it.

24th-28th Feb

Ridging based over the UK and Europe driving a dry and bland outlook, albeit with a +NAO flow in the Atlantic.

29th Feb-4th Mar

A +NAO persists and most of Europe stills faces blocking, but a North African low makes it more interesting for parts of Southern Europe.

5th-9th Mar

Ridging pushes towards the NE slowly away from the Alps, with the Western and Southern Alps benefitting. The Pyrenees and parts of SE Europe also look like they are set to improve. A remaining +NAO like setup keeps Britain in zonal conditions.

Climate Drivers

GWO is currently in a very positive orbit that is contributing to more momentum in the atmosphere than normal. However this has not really translated to the higher latitudes at a strong enough rate.

Most of the strongly positive momentum deposits have occurred in the tropics and subtropics, which have little effect to patterns influenced from the poles.

What does this mean for Europe? Probably not a great amount of push to change the pattern.

There is snow in Britain’s forecast (at least according to long range GFS), but the vibe remains largely cyclonic with a mostly +NAO outlook being retained. So basically not going so much as the seasonal forecast went as expected.

The Alps are having a pretty reasonable season, with a very good start, and slowing right down for much of January, and now picking up with some recent snowfalls. So a bit up and down, a bit of a not so great, mundane season, which summarises much of the NH ski regions at the moment. This isn’t likely to change over the next little while, as there is no real credible deposits of +AAM in the mix towards the extratropics to change things up for Europe.

The one thing that could shake things up is a stratospheric warming event, and we are seeing some disturbance over the next week. The problem is that it is minor.

The overall trend looks pretty slightly upward after the disturbance, a weakening of the stratosphere and then somewhat of a restrengthening of the vortex. Potentially another disturbance is possible later in the month. The reality is that this is not going to make the impact we need to create a proper -AO scenario.

This is reflected by the models:

The AO per EC46 is positive for the next month and a half, while the NAO only makes it back to neutral in March. This shows that the present base state is going to be hard to beat, in terms of proper snowy outbreaks away from the Northern Alps, which will be assisted by the +NAO generated strong jet stream. The colder nature of February helps the UK, but it still sees a zonal outlook ahead with little sign of avail.

The MJO shows some signs of moving into Phase 5-6-7 in mid-February in some capacity, which may help to dampen the strong +AO base state down the line later this month (Phase 6 of the MJO plus 10 days teleconnects to a -NAO). But again, these sorts of changes are gradual. So don’t expect sudden change anytime soon, we will continue to see an up and down, largely underwhelming climatic outlook for most of the European snow regions. But we may see improvement later in February.

Thanks so much for reading. I hoped you enjoyed reading it. 

Disclaimer: There is lower skill asssociated with using long range model forecasts to find snow systems. 

Thanks again for reading this European long range snow forecast, follow me on Twitter @longrangesnow and subscribe to my email list by clicking on the tab on the main header above.

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